Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Mariners SF @ SEA

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

42-57  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Jul 19 • 4:10 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

50-50  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Adrian Houser
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Houser

#12 | SP
@
Logan Gilbert
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Gilbert

#36 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Adrian Houser None-None 5.10 -- 3.0 1
Logan Gilbert 7-6 3.38 0.99 6.0 10
None-None W-L 7-6
5.10 ERA Ldr 3.38
-- WHIP 0.99
3.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 10
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
41%
📊
MARINERS
59%
GIANTS --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 61%
Under 0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Seattle)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

40.1%

Mariners Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SF By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

10.6%

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SEA By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
SAN FRANCISCO
4.5
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mariners Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Mariners Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mariners (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Mariners (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 SF @ SEA 3 - 6
Jul 18, 2026 SF @ SEA 3 - 4
Jul 17, 2026 SF @ SEA 7 - 0
Apr 6, 2025 SEA @ SF 4 - 5
Apr 5, 2025 SEA @ SF 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.13 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .314
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.706 ▲
OPS
.693
178
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +33.0% more
Seattle: 1.0 vs San Francisco: 0.7
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.8%
Seattle: 31.4% vs San Francisco: 30.6%
Hits (L5) +47.5% more
San Francisco: 8.7 vs Seattle: 4.6
Home Runs (L5) +43.0% more
San Francisco: 1.5 vs Seattle: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 3.5 3
SEA Score 4.5 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 4.6 / 8.7 12.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 8.8 7.0 / 16.0
Total Bases 8.0 / 13.8 19.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.2 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
SEA Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
SF
SEA
SF
ML
50% 81-81
49% 79-81
52% 85-77
53% 85-75
ATS
60% 98-64
62% 100-60
59% 95-67
52% 83-77
TTL
56% 85-67-10
55% 82-68-10
53% 81-71-10
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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