WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
50-50 | Road
5
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
42-57 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Clayton Beeter
#39 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Lopez
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Beeter | None-None | 3.77 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
| Jacob Lopez | 4-3 | 6.64 | 1.79 | 4.1 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
4-3
3.77 Ldr
ERA
6.64
--
WHIP
1.79
1.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.1
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
64%
ATHLETICS
36%
NATIONALS
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.7%
WSH By 3-4 runs
17.5%
ATH By 1-2 runs
15.0%
ATH By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
6.5
WASHINGTON
Athletics
5
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Washington
7
WASHINGTON
Athletics
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Nationals
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Nationals
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Nationals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o10.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.5
B
Sim
o10.5
Loss
Proj Total: 12.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
WSH @ ATH
5 - 2
Jul 18, 2026
WSH @ ATH
1 - 15
Jul 17, 2026
WSH @ ATH
23 - 4
Aug 7, 2025
ATH @ WSH
6 - 0
Aug 6, 2025
ATH @ WSH
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.744
▲
OPS
.719
210
▲
Home Runs
194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+22.4% more
Washington: 4.4
vs
Athletics: 3.4
Errors (L5)
+22.0% more
Washington: 0.7
vs
Athletics: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+15.0% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Home Runs (Season)
+7.6% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Athletics: 194.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
6.5
5
ATH Score
5.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 9.5
11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.8
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 9.7
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
16.2 / 17.2
14.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.4 / 4.4
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
WSH
ATH
WSH
ML
59%
95-67
57%
92-69
54%
87-74
54%
87-74
ATS
52%
84-78
58%
93-68
50%
81-80
57%
91-70
TTL
54%
84-73-5
50%
77-78-6
42%
66-90-5
42%
65-90-6
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