Home / MLB Projections MLB / Reds @ Rockies CIN @ COL

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

45-53  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sun, Jul 19 • 3:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

40-61  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Hunter Greene
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Greene

#21 | SP
@
Ryan Feltner
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Feltner

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hunter Greene 1-1 6.06 1.45 6.0 7
Ryan Feltner 3-3 5.48 1.29 2.1 3
1-1 W-L 3-3
6.06 ERA Ldr 5.48
1.45 WHIP Ldr 1.29
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 2.1
7 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
64%
📊
ROCKIES
36%
REDS --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 49%
Under 0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

36.3%

Rockies Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CIN By 3-4 runs

17.2%

COL By 1-2 runs

15.3%

COL By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
6.2
CINCINNATI
4.8
COLORADO
Simulated Score
8
CINCINNATI
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Reds Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Reds Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Reds (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u11.0 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o11.0 Win
Proj Total: 14.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 CIN @ COL 9 - 6
Jul 18, 2026 CIN @ COL 3 - 10
Jul 17, 2026 CIN @ COL 7 - 2
Apr 30, 2026 COL @ CIN 4 - 6
Apr 29, 2026 COL @ CIN 13 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.699
OPS
▲ .739
213 ▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +58.8% more
Cincinnati: 2.3 vs Colorado: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +25.0% more
Cincinnati: 18.8 vs Colorado: 14.1
Home Runs (Season) +15.5% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Colorado: 180.0
Hits (L5) +8.4% more
Cincinnati: 9.6 vs Colorado: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 6.2 9
COL Score 4.8 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.8 / 9.6 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 2.3 4.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 7.8 9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 14.1 / 18.8 20.0 / 24.0
Walks 2.5 / 2.1 0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
CIN
COL
CIN
ML
60% 97-64
55% 88-71
55% 88-73
49% 79-81
ATS
60% 97-64
54% 86-73
52% 83-78
50% 80-80
TTL
60% 93-62-6
53% 81-73-5
50% 77-78-6
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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