Home / MLB Projections MLB / Twins @ Cubs MIN @ CHC

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

49-51  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Jul 19 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

56-43  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Zebby Matthews
STARTING PITCHER

Zebby Matthews

#52 | Starting Pitcher
@
Shota Imanaga
STARTING PITCHER

Shota Imanaga

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Zebby Matthews 4-6 5.40 1.22 3.0 4
Shota Imanaga 5-8 3.91 1.12 7.0 4
4-6 W-L 5-8
5.40 ERA Ldr 3.91
1.22 WHIP Ldr 1.12
3.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
4 K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
33%
📊
CUBS
67%
TWINS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Chicago)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

30.9%

Cubs Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

MIN By 1-2 runs

13.6%

MIN By 3-4 runs

7.8%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
2.5
MINNESOTA
4.5
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
MINNESOTA
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Cubs Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Cubs Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Cubs (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 MIN @ CHC 1 - 10
Jul 18, 2026 MIN @ CHC 2 - 6
Jul 17, 2026 MIN @ CHC 5 - 2
Jul 10, 2025 CHC @ MIN 8 - 1
Jul 9, 2025 CHC @ MIN 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.720 ▲
OPS
.374
187 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +57.4% more
Chicago: 3.9 vs Minnesota: 2.5
Strikeouts (L5) +24.2% more
Chicago: 9.2 vs Minnesota: 7.4
Hits (L5) +13.1% more
Chicago: 8.6 vs Minnesota: 7.6
Total Bases (L5) +11.9% more
Chicago: 14.0 vs Minnesota: 12.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 2.5 1
CHC Score 4.5 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.6 / 7.6 12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 7.4 9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 14.0 / 12.5 20.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.5 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
MIN
CHC
MIN
ML
58% 93-68
52% 84-78
51% 82-79
50% 80-81
ATS
61% 97-63-1
59% 95-67
47% 75-85-1
59% 95-66
TTL
52% 81-74-6
51% 78-75-9
46% 72-83-6
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 36 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 44 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 47 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 54 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 50 minutes ago