Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Royals SD @ KC

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

49-50  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sun, Jul 19 • 2:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

40-60  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
German Marquez
STARTING PITCHER

German Marquez

#33 | Starting Pitcher
@
Noah Cameron
STARTING PITCHER

Noah Cameron

#65 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
German Marquez 4-2 5.24 1.49 3.0 2
Noah Cameron 5-7 5.27 1.42 5.0 1
4-2 W-L 5-7
5.24 Ldr ERA 5.27
1.49 WHIP Ldr 1.42
3.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
37%
📊
ROYALS
63%
PADRES --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Kansas City)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

34.5%

Royals Cover

65.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

SD By 1-2 runs

14.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

8.9%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
SAN DIEGO
5.8
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
7
SAN DIEGO
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Royals Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Padres Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 12.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 SD @ KC 19 - 2
Jul 18, 2026 SD @ KC 1 - 6
Jul 17, 2026 SD @ KC 6 - 7
Jun 22, 2025 KC @ SD 2 - 3
Jun 21, 2025 KC @ SD 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Kansas City KC
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.925 ▲
OPS
.718
4
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4150.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5) +43.6% more
Kansas City: 8.7 vs San Diego: 6.1
Home Runs (L5) +37.0% more
Kansas City: 1.2 vs San Diego: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +33.2% more
Kansas City: 15.9 vs San Diego: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.2 19
KC Score 5.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.5 / 7.2 8.0 / 19.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.8 1.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 6.1 7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 12.0 14.0 / 37.0
Walks 2.5 / 4.2 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
SD
KC
SD
ML
55% 89-72
51% 85-83
56% 90-70
51% 85-82
ATS
57% 91-70
54% 91-77
58% 93-67
55% 92-75
TTL
58% 90-64-7
51% 82-80-6
54% 83-70-7
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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