MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
52-48 | Road
1
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
62-37 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Eury Perez
#39 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Robert Gasser
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eury Perez | 5-7 | 3.53 | 1.14 | 6.0 | 9 |
| Robert Gasser | 2-4 | 4.91 | 1.27 | 5.0 | 5 |
5-7
W-L
2-4
3.53 Ldr
ERA
4.91
1.14 Ldr
WHIP
1.27
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
5
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
37%
BREWERS
63%
MARLINS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIA By 1-2 runs
15.0%
MIA By 3-4 runs
9.2%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.5
MIAMI
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Brewers
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
MIA @ MIL
1 - 3
Jul 18, 2026
MIA @ MIL
6 - 8
Jul 17, 2026
MIA @ MIL
1 - 2
Apr 19, 2026
MIL @ MIA
3 - 5
Apr 18, 2026
MIL @ MIA
5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.727
OPS
▲
.743
168
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+186.6% more
Milwaukee: 6.0
vs
Miami: 2.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+16.6% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Miami: 4.4
Hits (L5)
+12.0% more
Milwaukee: 8.4
vs
Miami: 7.5
OPS (Season)
+1.6%
Milwaukee: 74.3%
vs
Miami: 72.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.5
1
MIL Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 1.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.4 / 7.5
4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.1
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 9.9
12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.8 / 12.1
7.0 / 9.0
Walks
6.0 / 2.1
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
MIA
MIL
MIA
ML
62%
101-61
48%
78-84
52%
84-78
55%
88-72
ATS
58%
94-68
56%
91-71
48%
78-84
54%
86-74
TTL
40%
62-92-8
56%
88-69-5
50%
77-77-8
53%
82-73-5
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