BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
49-51 | Road
5
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
47-54 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Young
#63 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Brown
#58 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Young | 7-2 | 3.25 | 1.35 | 7.0 | 7 |
| Hunter Brown | 1-0 | 4.05 | 1.39 | 4.2 | 4 |
7-2
W-L
1-0
3.25 Ldr
ERA
4.05
1.35 Ldr
WHIP
1.39
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.2
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
33%
ASTROS
67%
ORIOLES
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
39%
Under 0
62%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
BAL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
2.5
BALTIMORE
Houston
4.5
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Astros
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Orioles
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
BAL @ HOU
5 - 2
Jul 18, 2026
BAL @ HOU
4 - 2
Jul 17, 2026
BAL @ HOU
3 - 2
Apr 30, 2026
HOU @ BAL
3 - 10
Apr 28, 2026
HOU @ BAL
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Houston
HOU
161
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.234
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.711
▲
OPS
.582
199
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+21.0% more
Houston: 8.1
vs
Baltimore: 6.7
Home Runs (Season)
+98.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+76.9% more
Baltimore: 1.0
vs
Houston: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+32.7% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
2.5
5
HOU Score
4.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 1.0
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.1 / 6.7
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 11.7
8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 11.4
12.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.3 / 4.4
1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
BAL
HOU
BAL
ML
50%
81-82
53%
83-73
47%
77-87
57%
90-69
ATS
56%
91-72
61%
95-60-1
55%
90-74
57%
90-68-1
TTL
45%
70-84-9
54%
81-70-5
45%
69-86-9
51%
78-75-6
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