PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
52-48 | Road
7
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
52-48 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Skenes
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Joey Cantillo
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | 8-8 | 3.43 | 1.02 | 7.0 | 8 |
| Joey Cantillo | 8-4 | 3.74 | 1.40 | 5.0 | 7 |
8-8
W-L
8-4
3.43 Ldr
ERA
3.74
1.02 Ldr
WHIP
1.40
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
8 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
7
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
59%
GUARDIANS
41%
PIRATES
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
52%
Under 0
48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
16.3%
CLE By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.8
PITTSBURGH
Cleveland
2.8
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.6
D
Sim
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
PIT @ CLE
7 - 1
Jul 18, 2026
PIT @ CLE
3 - 5
Apr 20, 2025
CLE @ PIT
5 - 4
Apr 19, 2025
CLE @ PIT
3 - 0
Apr 18, 2025
CLE @ PIT
10 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.734
▲
OPS
.696
186
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+18.3% more
Pittsburgh: 3.8
vs
Cleveland: 3.1
Home Runs (Season)
+12.9% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+11.4% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+3.8%
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.8
7
CLE Score
2.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.0
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.6 / 9.1
7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 8.7
11.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
14.8 / 15.5
9.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.8
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
PIT
CLE
PIT
ML
54%
87-74
52%
82-77
49%
80-82
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
93-68
54%
86-73
59%
95-67
50%
81-82
TTL
55%
88-71-2
47%
72-81-6
43%
69-90-2
50%
79-78-6
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