TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
50-49 | Road
5
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
57-41 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nathan Eovaldi
#17 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Holmes
#66 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | 9-7 | 4.21 | 1.18 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Grant Holmes | 5-4 | 3.70 | 1.32 | 5.0 | 2 |
9-7
W-L
5-4
4.21
ERA
Ldr 3.70
1.18 Ldr
WHIP
1.32
4.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
64%
BRAVES
36%
RANGERS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
59%
Under 0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TEX By 3-4 runs
17.5%
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
5.5
TEXAS
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rangers
Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Braves
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rangers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
TEX @ ATL
5 - 8
Jul 18, 2026
TEX @ ATL
7 - 6
Jul 17, 2026
TEX @ ATL
1 - 15
Jul 27, 2025
ATL @ TEX
1 - 8
Jul 26, 2025
ATL @ TEX
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.713
OPS
▲
.757
183
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.5% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+10.4% more
Texas: 8.7
vs
Atlanta: 7.8
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.9%
Texas: 24.2%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Errors (L5)
+56.0% more
Atlanta: 0.7
vs
Texas: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
5.5
5
ATL Score
4.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.3 / 9.0
14.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.5
4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 8.7
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
17.7 / 15.4
28.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.0
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
TEX
ATL
TEX
ML
46%
77-90
53%
86-76
54%
90-78
57%
91-70
ATS
57%
96-71
57%
92-70
52%
87-81
61%
98-63
TTL
53%
83-73-11
53%
78-70-14
49%
76-80-11
55%
81-66-14
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