TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
56-42 | Road
1
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
50-48 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Shane McClanahan
#18 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sonny Gray
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane McClanahan | 8-5 | 3.16 | 1.13 | 5.0 | 3 |
| Sonny Gray | 11-1 | 2.48 | 1.10 | 6.0 | 5 |
8-5
W-L
11-1
3.16
ERA
Ldr 2.48
1.13
WHIP
Ldr 1.10
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
37%
RED SOX
63%
RAYS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
43%
Under 0
57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
TB By 1-2 runs
15.0%
TB By 3-4 runs
9.2%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Boston
4.5
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Boston
4
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Rays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
C
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 5
Sep 19, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
BOS @ TB
4 - 2
Jul 19, 2026
TB @ BOS
1 - 6
Jul 18, 2026
TB @ BOS
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.728
▲
OPS
.409
169
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+46.0% more
Boston: 1.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.7
Walks (L5)
+42.6% more
Boston: 3.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+38.3% more
Boston: 2.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.5
Home Runs (Season)
+98.8% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
1
BOS Score
4.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.7
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
6.7 / 8.7
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.5
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 7.2
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 15.6
10.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.5
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TB
BOS
TB
ML
50%
80-80
58%
95-68
47%
76-87
58%
95-68
ATS
58%
93-67
60%
97-66
48%
79-84
55%
90-73
TTL
46%
72-83-5
47%
73-81-9
47%
74-83-6
51%
78-75-10
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