Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Phillies NYM @ PHI

NEW YORK

METSNYM

42-58  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Jul 19 • 1:35 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

55-45  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Nolan McLean
STARTING PITCHER

Nolan McLean

#26 | Starting Pitcher
@
Alan Rangel
STARTING PITCHER

Alan Rangel

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nolan McLean 6-6 3.34 1.12 6.0 10
Alan Rangel 0-2 5.40 1.40 4.0 4
6-6 W-L 0-2
3.34 Ldr ERA 5.40
1.12 Ldr WHIP 1.40
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 4.0
10 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
METS
63%
📊
PHILLIES
37%
METS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

64.6%

Phillies Cover

35.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

17.5%

PHI By 1-2 runs

15.0%

PHI By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5.5
NEW YORK
4
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
6
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Phillies Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Phillies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
C
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 PHI @ NYM 7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026 NYM @ PHI 6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.705
OPS
▲ .724
204 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.5% more
New York: 204.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Errors (L5) +52.7% more
New York: 1.7 vs Philadelphia: 0.8
Home Runs (L5) +25.7% more
New York: 1.4 vs Philadelphia: 1.1
Runs per Game (Season) +18.8% more
New York: 4.3 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.5 6
PHI Score 4.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 1.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 5.8 6.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 9.4 14.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 11.1 10.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.5 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
NYM
PHI
NYM
ML
59% 97-67
50% 79-80
49% 80-84
48% 76-83
ATS
65% 107-57
58% 93-66
51% 83-81
49% 78-81
TTL
57% 88-67-9
55% 80-66-13
51% 78-76-9
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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