CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
52-46 | Road
3
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
46-53 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Burke
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trey Yesavage
#39 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Burke | 6-4 | 3.20 | 1.17 | 6.2 | 5 |
| Trey Yesavage | 4-4 | 3.78 | 1.16 | 6.0 | 9 |
6-4
W-L
4-4
3.20 Ldr
ERA
3.78
1.17
WHIP
Ldr 1.16
6.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
5
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
62%
BLUE JAYS
38%
WHITE SOX
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHW By 3-4 runs
17.5%
TOR By 1-2 runs
15.0%
TOR By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.5
CHICAGO
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
White Sox
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
White Sox (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
CHW @ TOR
3 - 0
Jul 18, 2026
CHW @ TOR
0 - 1
Jul 17, 2026
CHW @ TOR
12 - 4
Apr 5, 2026
TOR @ CHW
0 - 3
Apr 4, 2026
TOR @ CHW
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Toronto
TOR
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.826
▲
OPS
.692
1
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+33.3% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.2% more
Chicago: 9.3
vs
Toronto: 6.9
OPS (Season)
+13.4%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+10.5%
Chicago: 41.5%
vs
Toronto: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
4.5
3
TOR Score
3.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 7.7
4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 9.3
6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 12.8
4.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.4 / 2.8
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CHW
TOR
CHW
ML
46%
74-87
49%
81-86
50%
80-80
56%
94-73
ATS
56%
90-71
59%
99-68
49%
79-81
56%
93-74
TTL
51%
80-76-5
58%
96-69-2
45%
70-85-5
51%
84-81-2
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