WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
49-50 | Road
1
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
42-56 | Home
15
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Littell
#18 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
J.T. Ginn
#35 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Littell | 7-6 | 5.34 | 1.31 | 6.0 | 4 |
| J.T. Ginn | 7-6 | 3.46 | 1.25 | 6.1 | 7 |
7-6
W-L
7-6
5.34
ERA
Ldr 3.46
1.31
WHIP
Ldr 1.25
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
37%
ATHLETICS
63%
NATIONALS
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.0%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.2%
ATH By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATH By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Athletics
6.5
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Athletics
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Nationals
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Nationals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u11.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.5
D
Sim
u11.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
WSH @ ATH
5 - 2
Jul 18, 2026
WSH @ ATH
1 - 15
Jul 17, 2026
WSH @ ATH
23 - 4
Aug 7, 2025
ATH @ WSH
6 - 0
Aug 6, 2025
ATH @ WSH
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.744
▲
OPS
.719
210
▲
Home Runs
194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+17.0% more
Athletics: 0.8
vs
Washington: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.0% more
Athletics: 10.4
vs
Washington: 9.1
Walks (L5)
+65.4% more
Washington: 4.6
vs
Athletics: 1.6
Home Runs (L5)
+60.5% more
Washington: 2.7
vs
Athletics: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
5.0
1
ATH Score
6.5
15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.7 / 12.2
13.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 2.7
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.4 / 9.1
6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 23.3
25.0 / 5.0
Walks
1.6 / 4.6
7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
WSH
ATH
WSH
ML
59%
95-67
57%
92-69
54%
87-74
54%
87-74
ATS
52%
84-78
58%
93-68
50%
81-80
57%
91-70
TTL
54%
84-73-5
50%
77-78-6
42%
66-90-5
42%
65-90-6
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