Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Diamondbacks STL @ ARI

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

51-46  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Jul 18 • 4:10 PM ET
Chase Field (NH)
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

50-48  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brandon Pfaadt
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Pfaadt

#32 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Svanson None-None 6.42 -- 1.0 --
Brandon Pfaadt 3-1 4.58 1.32 5.1 3
None-None W-L 3-1
6.42 ERA Ldr 4.58
-- WHIP 1.32
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
37%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
63%
CARDINALS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Arizona)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

35.4%

Diamondbacks Cover

64.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

STL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

STL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ARI By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
ST. LOUIS
5
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Diamondbacks Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim Cardinals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 23, 2026 ARI @ STL 10 - 6
Jul 19, 2026 STL @ ARI 7 - 8
Jul 18, 2026 STL @ ARI 3 - 5
Jul 17, 2026 STL @ ARI 5 - 4
Jun 24, 2026 ARI @ STL 9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .318
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.691
OPS
▲ .720
167 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +80.0% more
Arizona: 1.6 vs St. Louis: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +57.1% more
Arizona: 14.9 vs St. Louis: 9.5
Hits (L5) +25.9% more
Arizona: 7.6 vs St. Louis: 6.0
Errors (L5) +24.0% more
Arizona: 0.8 vs St. Louis: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.5 3
ARI Score 5.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 6.0 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 7.0 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.9 / 9.5 10.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.4 / 3.6 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
STL
ARI
STL
ML
54% 87-74
53% 85-74
54% 86-74
52% 84-77
ATS
57% 91-70
56% 89-70
56% 89-71
53% 85-76
TTL
52% 80-73-8
46% 68-81-10
49% 73-77-9
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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