SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
48-50 | Road
1
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
40-59 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Griffin Canning
#17 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Randy Dobnak
#62 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Canning | 1-7 | 6.67 | 1.60 | 3.2 | 4 |
| Randy Dobnak | 0-0 | 1.93 | 1.34 | 4.1 | 3 |
1-7
W-L
0-0
6.67
ERA
Ldr 1.93
1.60
WHIP
Ldr 1.34
3.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.1
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
63%
ROYALS
37%
PADRES
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
46%
Under 0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.5%
KC By 1-2 runs
15.0%
KC By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Kansas City
4.5
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Padres
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u11.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
C
Sim
u11.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
SD @ KC
19 - 2
Jul 18, 2026
SD @ KC
1 - 6
Jul 17, 2026
SD @ KC
6 - 7
Jun 22, 2025
KC @ SD
2 - 3
Jun 21, 2025
KC @ SD
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Kansas City
KC
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.925
▲
OPS
.718
4
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+29.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Kansas City: 4.3
Walks (L5)
+26.9% more
San Diego: 3.8
vs
Kansas City: 2.8
OPS (Season)
+20.7%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Kansas City: 71.8%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.1%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Kansas City: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
6.0
1
KC Score
4.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.8 / 7.8
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.8
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 6.6
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
14.9 / 11.5
18.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.8
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
SD
KC
SD
ML
55%
89-72
51%
85-83
56%
90-70
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
91-77
58%
93-67
55%
92-75
TTL
58%
90-64-7
51%
82-80-6
54%
83-70-7
54%
86-74-6
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