TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
50-48 | Road
7
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
56-41 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
MacKenzie Gore
#1 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Owen Murphy
#73 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacKenzie Gore | 5-8 | 4.80 | 1.29 | 5.2 | 7 |
| Owen Murphy | 0-1 | 4.05 | 0.25 | 2.2 | 2 |
5-8
W-L
0-1
4.80
ERA
Ldr 4.05
1.29
WHIP
Ldr 0.25
5.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.2
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
37%
BRAVES
63%
RANGERS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
TEX By 1-2 runs
15.0%
TEX By 3-4 runs
9.2%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Atlanta
5.5
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Braves
Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Braves
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
C
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
TEX @ ATL
5 - 8
Jul 18, 2026
TEX @ ATL
7 - 6
Jul 17, 2026
TEX @ ATL
1 - 15
Jul 27, 2025
ATL @ TEX
1 - 8
Jul 26, 2025
ATL @ TEX
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.713
OPS
▲
.757
183
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+81.5% more
Atlanta: 4.5
vs
Texas: 2.5
Hits (L5)
+45.1% more
Atlanta: 11.0
vs
Texas: 7.6
Total Bases (L5)
+36.6% more
Atlanta: 18.6
vs
Texas: 13.6
Home Runs (L5)
+25.8% more
Atlanta: 1.5
vs
Texas: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.0
7
ATL Score
5.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.3
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.0 / 7.6
9.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.2
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 8.6
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
18.6 / 13.6
16.0 / 19.0
Walks
4.5 / 2.5
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
TEX
ATL
TEX
ML
46%
77-90
53%
86-76
54%
90-78
57%
91-70
ATS
57%
96-71
57%
92-70
52%
87-81
61%
98-63
TTL
53%
83-73-11
53%
78-70-14
49%
76-80-11
55%
81-66-14
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