TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
56-41 | Road
6
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
49-48 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ian Seymour
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Patrick Sandoval
#43 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Seymour | 6-2 | 4.79 | 1.16 | 3.0 | 4 |
| Patrick Sandoval | 0-0 | 4.82 | 1.38 | 5.0 | 5 |
6-2
W-L
0-0
4.79 Ldr
ERA
4.82
1.16 Ldr
WHIP
1.38
3.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
37%
RED SOX
63%
RAYS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
48%
Under 0
52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
TB By 1-2 runs
15.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
9.5%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Boston
5.2
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Boston
4
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rays
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Rays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 5
Sep 19, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
BOS @ TB
4 - 2
Jul 19, 2026
TB @ BOS
1 - 6
Jul 18, 2026
TB @ BOS
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.728
▲
OPS
.409
169
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+70.9% more
Boston: 3.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 2.3
Home Runs (L5)
+29.8% more
Boston: 1.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.3
Errors (L5)
+19.0% more
Boston: 0.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.6
Home Runs (Season)
+98.8% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.8
6
BOS Score
5.2
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.6
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.1 / 8.0
6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.3
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 7.3
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 13.3
18.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.9 / 2.3
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TB
BOS
TB
ML
50%
80-80
58%
95-68
47%
76-87
58%
95-68
ATS
58%
93-67
60%
97-66
48%
79-84
55%
90-73
TTL
46%
72-83-5
47%
73-81-9
47%
74-83-6
51%
78-75-10
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