PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
51-48 | Road
3
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
52-47 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Eisert
#14 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Allen
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Eisert | None-None | 6.44 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
| Logan Allen | 0-0 | 2.45 | 1.50 | 3.1 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
0-0
6.44
ERA
Ldr 2.45
--
WHIP
1.50
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.1
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
59%
GUARDIANS
41%
PIRATES
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
37%
Under 0
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
16.3%
CLE By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
PIT @ CLE
7 - 1
Jul 18, 2026
PIT @ CLE
3 - 5
Apr 20, 2025
CLE @ PIT
5 - 4
Apr 19, 2025
CLE @ PIT
3 - 0
Apr 18, 2025
CLE @ PIT
10 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.734
▲
OPS
.696
186
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+24.1% more
Pittsburgh: 18.8
vs
Cleveland: 14.2
Home Runs (L5)
+17.6% more
Pittsburgh: 1.7
vs
Cleveland: 1.4
Walks (L5)
+17.0% more
Pittsburgh: 3.2
vs
Cleveland: 2.6
Hits (L5)
+16.4% more
Pittsburgh: 10.6
vs
Cleveland: 8.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.0
3
CLE Score
3.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 10.6
11.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 8.0
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 18.8
16.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.2
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
PIT
CLE
PIT
ML
54%
87-74
52%
82-77
49%
80-82
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
93-68
54%
86-73
59%
95-67
50%
81-82
TTL
55%
88-71-2
47%
72-81-6
43%
69-90-2
50%
79-78-6
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