Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Phillies NYM @ PHI

NEW YORK

METSNYM

41-58  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Jul 18 • 3:05 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

55-44  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jesus Luzardo
STARTING PITCHER

Jesus Luzardo

#44 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sean Manaea 2-4 4.74 1.32 4.2 7
Jesus Luzardo 8-4 3.43 1.22 5.0 7
2-4 W-L 8-4
4.74 ERA Ldr 3.43
1.32 WHIP Ldr 1.22
4.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
7 K (Strikeouts) 7
AI Model Win Probability
METS
37%
📊
PHILLIES
63%
METS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 44%
Under 0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Philadelphia)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

36.3%

Phillies Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

NYM By 1-2 runs

15.3%

NYM By 3-4 runs

9.5%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PHI By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
NEW YORK
5.2
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Phillies Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phillies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Phillies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 PHI @ NYM 7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026 NYM @ PHI 6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.705
OPS
▲ .724
204 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +9.3% more
Philadelphia: 9.4 vs New York: 8.6
Slugging Pct (Season) +4.3%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs New York: 39.5%
OPS (Season) +1.9%
Philadelphia: 72.4% vs New York: 70.5%
Batting Avg (Season) +0.8%
Philadelphia: 24.7% vs New York: 23.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 3.8 1
PHI Score 5.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 1.0 1.0 / 3.0
Hits 6.2 / 7.1 12.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.7 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 8.6 10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 9.7 / 13.6 20.0 / 6.0
Walks 2.3 / 4.2 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
3%MONEY97%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
NYM
PHI
NYM
ML
59% 97-67
50% 79-80
49% 80-84
48% 76-83
ATS
65% 107-57
58% 93-66
51% 83-81
49% 78-81
TTL
57% 88-67-9
55% 80-66-13
51% 78-76-9
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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