CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
44-53 | Road
3
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
40-60 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rhett Lowder
#25 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tomoyuki Sugano
#11 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhett Lowder | 3-6 | 5.75 | 1.54 | 2.1 | 2 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | 8-4 | 4.76 | 1.32 | 6.1 | 3 |
3-6
W-L
8-4
5.75
ERA
Ldr 4.76
1.54
WHIP
Ldr 1.32
2.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
63%
ROCKIES
37%
REDS
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
59%
Under 0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CIN By 3-4 runs
17.5%
COL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
COL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
7.5
CINCINNATI
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rockies
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Rockies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o12.5
Win
Proj Total: 13.5
B
Sim
u12.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
CIN @ COL
9 - 6
Jul 18, 2026
CIN @ COL
3 - 10
Jul 17, 2026
CIN @ COL
7 - 2
Apr 30, 2026
COL @ CIN
4 - 6
Apr 29, 2026
COL @ CIN
13 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.699
OPS
▲
.739
213
▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+62.2% more
Cincinnati: 2.5
vs
Colorado: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+45.8% more
Cincinnati: 18.7
vs
Colorado: 10.2
Hits (L5)
+37.5% more
Cincinnati: 9.8
vs
Colorado: 6.2
Home Runs (Season)
+15.5% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Colorado: 180.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
7.5
3
COL Score
6.0
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.2 / 9.8
14.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 2.5
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 8.6
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
10.2 / 18.7
22.0 / 19.0
Walks
2.3 / 2.6
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
Advantage
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
CIN
COL
CIN
ML
60%
97-64
55%
88-71
55%
88-73
49%
79-81
ATS
60%
97-64
54%
86-73
52%
83-78
50%
80-80
TTL
60%
93-62-6
53%
81-73-5
50%
77-78-6
54%
83-72-5
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