CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
51-46 | Road
0
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
46-52 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Davis Martin
#65 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Bieber
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Martin | 9-4 | 3.31 | 1.29 | 5.2 | 5 |
| Shane Bieber | 0-1 | 5.70 | 2.04 | 6.0 | 6 |
9-4
W-L
0-1
3.31 Ldr
ERA
5.70
1.29 Ldr
WHIP
2.04
5.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
5
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
58%
BLUE JAYS
42%
WHITE SOX
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
41%
Under 0
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHW By 3-4 runs
16.3%
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.8
CHICAGO
Toronto
3.8
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
White Sox
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Sim
White Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
B
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
CHW @ TOR
3 - 0
Jul 18, 2026
CHW @ TOR
0 - 1
Jul 17, 2026
CHW @ TOR
12 - 4
Apr 5, 2026
TOR @ CHW
0 - 3
Apr 4, 2026
TOR @ CHW
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Toronto
TOR
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.826
▲
OPS
.692
1
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+33.3% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+18.5% more
Chicago: 8.9
vs
Toronto: 7.3
Hits (L5)
+14.9% more
Chicago: 9.5
vs
Toronto: 8.1
OPS (Season)
+13.4%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
4.8
0
TOR Score
3.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 9.5
5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 8.9
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.2 / 15.7
7.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.8
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CHW
TOR
CHW
ML
46%
74-87
49%
81-86
50%
80-80
56%
94-73
ATS
56%
90-71
59%
99-68
49%
79-81
56%
93-74
TTL
51%
80-76-5
58%
96-69-2
45%
70-85-5
51%
84-81-2
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