MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
49-50 | Road
2
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
55-43 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Taj Bradley
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Boyd
#16 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley | 9-3 | 3.85 | 1.22 | 5.0 | 6 |
| Matthew Boyd | 5-1 | 4.15 | 1.28 | 6.0 | 4 |
9-3
W-L
5-1
3.85 Ldr
ERA
4.15
1.22 Ldr
WHIP
1.28
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
33%
CUBS
67%
TWINS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
49%
Under 0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
MIN By 1-2 runs
13.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
7.8%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3.2
MINNESOTA
Chicago
5.2
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cubs
Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Cubs
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
MIN @ CHC
1 - 10
Jul 18, 2026
MIN @ CHC
2 - 6
Jul 17, 2026
MIN @ CHC
5 - 2
Jul 10, 2025
CHC @ MIN
8 - 1
Jul 9, 2025
CHC @ MIN
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.720
▲
OPS
.374
187
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+19.4% more
Chicago: 3.9
vs
Minnesota: 3.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+9.1% more
Chicago: 8.4
vs
Minnesota: 7.7
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+89.0% more
Minnesota: 4.6
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.2
2
CHC Score
5.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 7.4
11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.9
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 7.7
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 11.8
18.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.9 / 3.2
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
MIN
CHC
MIN
ML
58%
93-68
52%
84-78
51%
82-79
50%
80-81
ATS
61%
97-63-1
59%
95-67
47%
75-85-1
59%
95-66
TTL
52%
81-74-6
51%
78-75-9
46%
72-83-6
53%
80-72-9
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