SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
42-55 | Road
7
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
48-50 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Landen Roupp
#65 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryce Miller
#50 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landen Roupp | 6-8 | 3.98 | 1.31 | 7.0 | 2 |
| Bryce Miller | 4-3 | 2.27 | 0.83 | 5.2 | 6 |
6-8
W-L
4-3
3.98
ERA
Ldr 2.27
1.31
WHIP
Ldr 0.83
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
40%
MARINERS
60%
GIANTS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
57%
Under 0
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SF By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SF By 3-4 runs
10.6%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SEA By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
3.2
SAN FRANCISCO
Seattle
4.2
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
San Francisco
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mariners
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 7.4
C
Sim
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
SF @ SEA
3 - 6
Jul 18, 2026
SF @ SEA
3 - 4
Jul 17, 2026
SF @ SEA
7 - 0
Apr 6, 2025
SEA @ SF
4 - 5
Apr 5, 2025
SEA @ SF
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.13
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.706
▲
OPS
.693
178
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+33.1% more
Seattle: 8.4
vs
San Francisco: 6.3
Home Runs (L5)
+31.0% more
Seattle: 1.2
vs
San Francisco: 0.9
Errors (L5)
+25.0% more
Seattle: 0.5
vs
San Francisco: 0.3
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.8%
Seattle: 31.4%
vs
San Francisco: 30.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
3.2
7
SEA Score
4.2
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.3
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.1 / 8.4
2.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.9
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 6.3
4.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 12.2
2.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.9
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
SEA
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
SF
SEA
SF
ML
50%
81-81
49%
79-81
52%
85-77
53%
85-75
ATS
60%
98-64
62%
100-60
59%
95-67
52%
83-77
TTL
56%
85-67-10
55%
82-68-10
53%
81-71-10
46%
68-81-11
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