WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
49-49 | Road
23
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
41-56 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Cavalli
#24 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gage Jump
#61 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cavalli | 5-4 | 3.78 | 1.35 | 6.0 | 9 |
| Gage Jump | 3-4 | 3.78 | 1.29 | 3.2 | 8 |
5-4
W-L
3-4
3.78
ERA
3.78
1.35
WHIP
Ldr 1.29
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
3.2
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
8
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
63%
ATHLETICS
37%
NATIONALS
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.7%
WSH By 3-4 runs
17.5%
ATH By 1-2 runs
15.0%
ATH By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Athletics
4.5
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Nationals
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Nationals
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Nationals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o10.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
C
Sim
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
WSH @ ATH
5 - 2
Jul 18, 2026
WSH @ ATH
1 - 15
Jul 17, 2026
WSH @ ATH
23 - 4
Aug 7, 2025
ATH @ WSH
6 - 0
Aug 6, 2025
ATH @ WSH
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.744
▲
OPS
.719
210
▲
Home Runs
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+70.4% more
Washington: 2.1
vs
Athletics: 0.6
Walks (L5)
+51.3% more
Washington: 3.8
vs
Athletics: 1.9
Total Bases (L5)
+43.2% more
Washington: 15.4
vs
Athletics: 8.8
Hits (L5)
+27.7% more
Washington: 7.8
vs
Athletics: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
6.0
23
ATH Score
4.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
5.6 / 7.8
9.0 / 21.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 2.1
2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 7.1
14.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
8.8 / 15.4
18.0 / 39.0
Walks
1.9 / 3.8
1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
WSH
ATH
WSH
ML
59%
95-67
57%
92-69
54%
87-74
54%
87-74
ATS
52%
84-78
58%
93-68
50%
81-80
57%
91-70
TTL
54%
84-73-5
50%
77-78-6
42%
66-90-5
42%
65-90-6
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