ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
51-45 | Road
5
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
49-48 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael McGreevy
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McGreevy | 4-7 | 2.92 | 1.10 | 6.1 | 5 |
| Merrill Kelly | 7-8 | 5.20 | 1.51 | 5.0 | 3 |
4-7
W-L
7-8
2.92 Ldr
ERA
5.20
1.10 Ldr
WHIP
1.51
6.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
37%
DIAMONDBACKS
63%
CARDINALS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
46%
Under 0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
STL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
STL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
3.5
ST. LOUIS
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Cardinals
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
u9.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 23, 2026
ARI @ STL
10 - 6
Jul 19, 2026
STL @ ARI
7 - 8
Jul 18, 2026
STL @ ARI
3 - 5
Jul 17, 2026
STL @ ARI
5 - 4
Jun 24, 2026
ARI @ STL
9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.691
OPS
▲
.720
167
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+70.0% more
Arizona: 1.4
vs
St. Louis: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+53.1% more
Arizona: 13.3
vs
St. Louis: 8.7
Hits (L5)
+46.3% more
Arizona: 7.4
vs
St. Louis: 5.1
Walks (L5)
+26.2% more
Arizona: 3.7
vs
St. Louis: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
3.5
5
ARI Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.8
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 5.1
8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.7
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 8.0
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 8.7
18.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.9
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
STL
ARI
STL
ML
54%
87-74
53%
85-74
54%
86-74
52%
84-77
ATS
57%
91-70
56%
89-70
56%
89-71
53%
85-76
TTL
52%
80-73-8
46%
68-81-10
49%
73-77-9
50%
76-75-10
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