Home / MLB Projections MLB / Tigers @ Angels DET @ LAA

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

45-52  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Jul 17 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

38-60  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Troy Melton
STARTING PITCHER

Troy Melton

#52 | Starting Pitcher
@
Reid Detmers
STARTING PITCHER

Reid Detmers

#48 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Troy Melton 5-1 1.80 0.81 5.2 9
Reid Detmers 3-6 4.16 1.14 6.0 7
5-1 W-L 3-6
1.80 Ldr ERA 4.16
0.81 Ldr WHIP 1.14
5.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
9 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 7
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
59%
📊
ANGELS
41%
TIGERS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 46%
Under 0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

40.1%

Angels Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

16.3%

LAA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.5
DETROIT
3.5
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
5
DETROIT
3
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Tigers Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim Tigers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 DET @ LAA 2 - 3
Jul 18, 2026 DET @ LAA 7 - 0
Jul 17, 2026 DET @ LAA 2 - 1
May 28, 2026 LAA @ DET 7 - 1
May 27, 2026 LAA @ DET 0 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.241 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.720 ▲
OPS
.679
181 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +72.0% more
Detroit: 0.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.1
Home Runs (Season) +14.9% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Home Runs (L5) +14.3% more
Detroit: 1.3 vs Los Angeles: 1.1
Strikeouts (L5) +10.6% more
Detroit: 10.0 vs Los Angeles: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 4.5 2
LAA Score 3.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.0 / 6.3 5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 10.0 14.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 13.9 / 10.8 6.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.9 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
DET
LAA
DET
ML
59% 96-66
54% 86-73
55% 89-73
54% 87-73
ATS
60% 97-65
64% 101-58
51% 82-80
57% 91-69
TTL
53% 83-74-5
46% 69-81-9
52% 82-75-5
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 1 hour, 38 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 7 hours, 27 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 13 hours, 34 minutes ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 19 hours, 15 minutes ago
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
headtopics 19 hours, 38 minutes ago