Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Royals SD @ KC

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

48-49  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Jul 17 • 8:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

39-59  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Michael King
STARTING PITCHER

Michael King

#34 | Starting Pitcher
@
Seth Lugo
STARTING PITCHER

Seth Lugo

#67 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael King 6-7 3.34 1.15 5.0 4
Seth Lugo 3-6 4.39 1.43 6.0 3
6-7 W-L 3-6
3.34 Ldr ERA 4.39
1.15 Ldr WHIP 1.43
5.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
63%
📊
ROYALS
37%
PADRES --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

64.6%

Royals Cover

35.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

17.5%

KC By 1-2 runs

15.0%

KC By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
6
SAN DIEGO
4.5
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Royals Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o10.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.5
C
Sim u10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 SD @ KC 19 - 2
Jul 18, 2026 SD @ KC 1 - 6
Jul 17, 2026 SD @ KC 6 - 7
Jun 22, 2025 KC @ SD 2 - 3
Jun 21, 2025 KC @ SD 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Kansas City KC
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.925 ▲
OPS
.718
4
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +64.4% more
San Diego: 4.8 vs Kansas City: 1.7
Runs per Game (Season) +29.0% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Kansas City: 4.3
OPS (Season) +20.7%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Kansas City: 71.8%
Slugging Pct (Season) +16.1%
San Diego: 56.3% vs Kansas City: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 6.0 6
KC Score 4.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 2.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.2 / 7.7 13.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 7.9 9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 13.4 / 10.2 18.0 / 14.0
Walks 1.7 / 4.8 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
SD
KC
SD
ML
55% 89-72
51% 85-83
56% 90-70
51% 85-82
ATS
57% 91-70
54% 91-77
58% 93-67
55% 92-75
TTL
58% 90-64-7
51% 82-80-6
54% 83-70-7
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 1 hour, 20 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 1 hour, 28 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 1 hour, 31 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 13 hours, 34 minutes ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 19 hours, 15 minutes ago