BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
47-51 | Road
3
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
47-52 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Kittredge
#39 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Peter Lambert
#38 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Kittredge | None-None | 4.15 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Peter Lambert | 8-5 | 3.03 | 1.12 | 6.0 | 10 |
None-None
W-L
8-5
4.15
ERA
Ldr 3.03
--
WHIP
1.12
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 10
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
37%
ASTROS
63%
ORIOLES
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
49%
Under 0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
BAL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
BAL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
3.5
BALTIMORE
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Houston
5.1
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Astros
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Orioles (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.1
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
BAL @ HOU
5 - 2
Jul 18, 2026
BAL @ HOU
4 - 2
Jul 17, 2026
BAL @ HOU
3 - 2
Apr 30, 2026
HOU @ BAL
3 - 10
Apr 28, 2026
HOU @ BAL
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Houston
HOU
161
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.234
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.711
▲
OPS
.582
199
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+32.7% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Houston: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+29.0% more
Baltimore: 0.8
vs
Houston: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+12.9%
Baltimore: 71.1%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
3.5
3
HOU Score
5.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 8.8
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 2.3
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 8.5
8.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 16.5
7.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.5
9.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
BAL
HOU
BAL
ML
50%
81-82
53%
83-73
47%
77-87
57%
90-69
ATS
56%
91-72
61%
95-60-1
55%
90-74
57%
90-68-1
TTL
45%
70-84-9
54%
81-70-5
45%
69-86-9
51%
78-75-6
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