MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
49-49 | Road
5
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
54-43 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bailey Ober
#17 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Colin Rea
#53 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober | 6-3 | 4.32 | 1.19 | 5.1 | 7 |
| Colin Rea | 7-5 | 4.74 | 1.45 | 6.0 | 6 |
6-3
W-L
7-5
4.32 Ldr
ERA
4.74
1.19 Ldr
WHIP
1.45
5.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
6
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
33%
CUBS
67%
TWINS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
42%
Under 0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
MIN By 1-2 runs
13.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
7.8%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Chicago
5.1
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Cubs
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u11.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Sim
u11.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
MIN @ CHC
1 - 10
Jul 18, 2026
MIN @ CHC
2 - 6
Jul 17, 2026
MIN @ CHC
5 - 2
Jul 10, 2025
CHC @ MIN
8 - 1
Jul 9, 2025
CHC @ MIN
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.720
▲
OPS
.374
187
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+48.0% more
Chicago: 1.3
vs
Minnesota: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.9% more
Chicago: 8.0
vs
Minnesota: 6.5
Total Bases (L5)
+14.7% more
Chicago: 14.5
vs
Minnesota: 12.7
Walks (L5)
+13.4% more
Chicago: 3.8
vs
Minnesota: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.0
5
CHC Score
6.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 7.6
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 6.5
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 12.7
7.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.8 / 3.4
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
MIN
CHC
MIN
ML
58%
93-68
52%
84-78
51%
82-79
50%
80-81
ATS
61%
97-63-1
59%
95-67
47%
75-85-1
59%
95-66
TTL
52%
81-74-6
51%
78-75-9
46%
72-83-6
53%
80-72-9
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