TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
49-48 | Road
1
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
56-40 | Home
15
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cal Quantrill
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chris Sale
#51 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill | 3-1 | 3.93 | 1.14 | 4.0 | 3 |
| Chris Sale | 9-6 | 2.06 | 1.11 | 7.0 | 6 |
3-1
W-L
9-6
3.93
ERA
Ldr 2.06
1.14
WHIP
Ldr 1.11
4.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
37%
BRAVES
63%
RANGERS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
TEX By 1-2 runs
15.0%
TEX By 3-4 runs
9.2%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
3.5
TEXAS
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Braves
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Rangers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
TEX @ ATL
5 - 8
Jul 18, 2026
TEX @ ATL
7 - 6
Jul 17, 2026
TEX @ ATL
1 - 15
Jul 27, 2025
ATL @ TEX
1 - 8
Jul 26, 2025
ATL @ TEX
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.713
OPS
▲
.757
183
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+20.5% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Texas: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+4.4%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Texas: 71.3%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.7%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
Texas: 39.6%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.7%
Atlanta: 32.4%
vs
Texas: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
3.5
1
ATL Score
5.0
15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 8.9
19.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.8
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 9.4
5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 16.9
33.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.8 / 3.7
6.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
TEX
ATL
TEX
ML
46%
77-90
53%
86-76
54%
90-78
57%
91-70
ATS
57%
96-71
57%
92-70
52%
87-81
61%
98-63
TTL
53%
83-73-11
53%
78-70-14
49%
76-80-11
55%
81-66-14
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