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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

51-45  |  Road

12
FINAL
Fri, Jul 17 • 7:15 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

45-52  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Anthony Kay
STARTING PITCHER

Anthony Kay

#18 | Starting Pitcher
@
Spencer Miles
STARTING PITCHER

Spencer Miles

#62 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Anthony Kay 6-4 4.24 1.38 4.0 5
Spencer Miles 4-1 3.52 1.10 4.0 4
6-4 W-L 4-1
4.24 ERA Ldr 3.52
1.38 WHIP Ldr 1.10
4.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 4.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
33%
📊
BLUE JAYS
67%
WHITE SOX --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Toronto)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

30.9%

Blue Jays Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

CHW By 1-2 runs

13.6%

CHW By 3-4 runs

7.8%

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TOR By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3
CHICAGO
5
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Blue Jays Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Blue Jays Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Blue Jays (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 CHW @ TOR 3 - 0
Jul 18, 2026 CHW @ TOR 0 - 1
Jul 17, 2026 CHW @ TOR 12 - 4
Apr 5, 2026 TOR @ CHW 0 - 3
Apr 4, 2026 TOR @ CHW 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Toronto TOR
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.826 ▲
OPS
.692
1
Home Runs
▲ 152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +15100.0% more
Toronto: 152.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +52.3% more
Toronto: 1.7 vs Chicago: 1.1
Walks (L5) +32.4% more
Toronto: 3.5 vs Chicago: 2.6
Errors (L5) +47.0% more
Chicago: 1.0 vs Toronto: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.0 12
TOR Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 8.2 7.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.1 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.4 / 9.4 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.9 / 14.1 16.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.5 / 2.6 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CHW
TOR
CHW
ML
46% 74-87
49% 81-86
50% 80-80
56% 94-73
ATS
56% 90-71
59% 99-68
49% 79-81
56% 93-74
TTL
51% 80-76-5
58% 96-69-2
45% 70-85-5
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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