Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Yankees LAD @ NYY

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

62-36  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Jul 17 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

54-43  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Roki Sasaki
STARTING PITCHER

Roki Sasaki

#11 | Starting Pitcher
@
Gerrit Cole
STARTING PITCHER

Gerrit Cole

#45 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Roki Sasaki 3-5 4.98 1.36 5.2 5
Gerrit Cole 3-4 3.93 1.20 6.0 8
3-5 W-L 3-4
4.98 ERA Ldr 3.93
1.36 WHIP Ldr 1.20
5.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
5 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
38%
📊
YANKEES
62%
DODGERS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (New York)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

36.3%

Yankees Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

LAD By 1-2 runs

15.3%

LAD By 3-4 runs

9.5%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
LOS ANGELES
5.2
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Yankees Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Dodgers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 LAD @ NYY 1 - 2
Jul 17, 2026 LAD @ NYY 2 - 1
Jun 1, 2025 NYY @ LAD 7 - 3
May 31, 2025 NYY @ LAD 2 - 18
May 30, 2025 NYY @ LAD 5 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.94
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.257
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.338
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.762
OPS
▲ 1.041
204 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +94.0% more
New York: 1.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.8
Runs per Game (Season) +82.2% more
New York: 9.0 vs Los Angeles: 4.9
Total Bases (L5) +70.1% more
New York: 16.6 vs Los Angeles: 9.7
Hits (L5) +53.0% more
New York: 9.3 vs Los Angeles: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 3.8 2
NYY Score 5.2 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 1.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.3 / 6.1 6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 7.2 8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 16.6 / 9.7 9.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.7 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
NYY
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
LAD
NYY
LAD
ML
47% 76-85
56% 92-73
52% 85-77
48% 79-87
ATS
59% 95-66
59% 98-67
53% 86-76
43% 72-94
TTL
53% 81-73-7
48% 77-82-6
53% 82-72-7
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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