TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
56-40 | Road
3
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
48-48 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Englert
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Eduardo Rivera
#99 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Englert | 0-2 | 4.54 | 1.37 | 5.0 | 4 |
| Eduardo Rivera | 0-0 | 2.89 | 0.57 | 2.1 | 3 |
0-2
W-L
0-0
4.54
ERA
Ldr 2.89
1.37
WHIP
Ldr 0.57
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.1
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
42%
RED SOX
58%
RAYS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
10.6%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Boston
4.8
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Boston
3
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
C
Sim
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 5
Sep 19, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
BOS @ TB
4 - 2
Jul 19, 2026
TB @ BOS
1 - 6
Jul 18, 2026
TB @ BOS
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.728
▲
OPS
.409
169
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+78.8% more
Boston: 4.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 2.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.8% more
Boston: 8.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 7.0
Home Runs (Season)
+98.8% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+78.0% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.8
3
BOS Score
4.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.9
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.6 / 8.5
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.5
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 7.0
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 15.0
19.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.3 / 2.4
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TB
BOS
TB
ML
50%
80-80
58%
95-68
47%
76-87
58%
95-68
ATS
58%
93-67
60%
97-66
48%
79-84
55%
90-73
TTL
46%
72-83-5
47%
73-81-9
47%
74-83-6
51%
78-75-10
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