Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Phillies NYM @ PHI

NEW YORK

METSNYM

41-57  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Jul 16 • 7:00 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

54-44  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Christian Scott
STARTING PITCHER

Christian Scott

#45 | Starting Pitcher
@
Aaron Nola
STARTING PITCHER

Aaron Nola

#27 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Christian Scott 2-1 2.87 1.30 5.2 7
Aaron Nola 3-6 5.68 1.43 6.0 6
2-1 W-L 3-6
2.87 Ldr ERA 5.68
1.30 Ldr WHIP 1.43
5.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
7 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 6
AI Model Win Probability
METS
36%
📊
PHILLIES
64%
METS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 54%
Under 0 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Philadelphia)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

34.5%

Phillies Cover

65.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

NYM By 1-2 runs

14.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

8.9%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PHI By 3-4 runs

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
NEW YORK
5.8
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Phillies Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 PHI @ NYM 7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026 NYM @ PHI 6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.705
OPS
▲ .724
204 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Slugging Pct (Season) +4.3%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs New York: 39.5%
OPS (Season) +1.9%
Philadelphia: 72.4% vs New York: 70.5%
Batting Avg (Season) +0.8%
Philadelphia: 24.7% vs New York: 23.9%
Home Runs (Season) +98.5% more
New York: 204.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.2 4
PHI Score 5.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.3 / 7.2 4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 1.0 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 8.9 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.1 / 11.9 9.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.0 / 3.3 1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
NYM
PHI
NYM
ML
59% 97-67
50% 79-80
49% 80-84
48% 76-83
ATS
65% 107-57
58% 93-66
51% 83-81
49% 78-81
TTL
57% 88-67-9
55% 80-66-13
51% 78-76-9
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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