TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
45-51 | Road
4
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
48-48 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Rogers
#71 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
German Marquez
#33 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Rogers | None-None | 1.65 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| German Marquez | 4-2 | 5.18 | 1.43 | 4.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
4-2
1.65 Ldr
ERA
5.18
--
WHIP
1.43
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
63%
PADRES
37%
BLUE JAYS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
17.5%
SD By 1-2 runs
15.0%
SD By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5
TORONTO
San Diego
3.5
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Padres
Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
TOR @ SD
4 - 5
Jul 11, 2026
TOR @ SD
7 - 8
Jul 10, 2026
TOR @ SD
5 - 3
May 22, 2025
SD @ TOR
6 - 7
May 21, 2025
SD @ TOR
0 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.692
OPS
▲
.925
152
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.4% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+37.7% more
Toronto: 1.5
vs
San Diego: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+14.6% more
Toronto: 13.8
vs
San Diego: 11.8
Walks (L5)
+51.5% more
San Diego: 5.6
vs
Toronto: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.0
4
SD Score
3.5
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.1 / 8.4
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.5
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 6.2
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 13.8
7.0 / 17.0
Walks
5.6 / 3.7
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
TOR
SD
TOR
ML
51%
85-83
46%
74-87
51%
85-82
50%
80-80
ATS
54%
91-77
56%
90-71
55%
92-75
49%
79-81
TTL
51%
82-80-6
51%
80-76-5
54%
86-74-6
45%
70-85-5
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