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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

49-47  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, Jul 12 • 4:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

61-36  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Juan Morillo
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Morillo

#62 | Relief Pitcher
@
Emmet Sheehan
STARTING PITCHER

Emmet Sheehan

#80 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Juan Morillo None-None 2.89 -- 1.0 --
Emmet Sheehan 4-6 4.81 1.27 5.1 7
None-None W-L 4-6
2.89 Ldr ERA 4.81
-- WHIP 1.27
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
37%
📊
DODGERS
63%
DIAMONDBACKS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Los Angeles)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

35.4%

Dodgers Cover

64.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

ARI By 1-2 runs

15.0%

ARI By 3-4 runs

9.2%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4
ARIZONA
5.5
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
6
ARIZONA
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Dodgers Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Diamondbacks Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Diamondbacks (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 LAD @ ARI 2 - 4
Aug 8, 2026 LAD @ ARI 2 - 1
Aug 7, 2026 LAD @ ARI 3 - 4
Jul 12, 2026 ARI @ LAD 5 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 ARI @ LAD 9 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.720
OPS
▲ .762
166
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +113.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.4 vs Arizona: 0.2
Home Runs (Season) +22.9% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Arizona: 166.0
Runs per Game (Season) +8.3% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Arizona: 4.6
OPS (Season) +4.2%
Los Angeles: 76.2% vs Arizona: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 4.0 5
LAD Score 5.5 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.4 / 0.2 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 8.6 3.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.7 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 8.7 6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 11.1 / 14.9 7.0 / 10.0
Walks 1.6 / 4.0 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
ARI
LAD
ARI
ML
56% 92-73
54% 87-74
48% 79-87
54% 86-74
ATS
59% 98-67
57% 91-70
43% 72-94
56% 89-71
TTL
48% 77-82-6
52% 80-73-8
44% 70-90-6
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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