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COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

39-59  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Jul 12 • 4:05 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

41-55  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Jimmy Herget
STARTING PITCHER

Jimmy Herget

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Trevor McDonald
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor McDonald

#72 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jimmy Herget None-None 3.60 -- 1.0 1
Trevor McDonald 3-7 5.02 1.38 7.0 4
None-None W-L 3-7
3.60 Ldr ERA 5.02
-- WHIP 1.38
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
32%
📊
GIANTS
68%
ROCKIES --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 42%
Under 0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Francisco)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

30.9%

Giants Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

COL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3
COLORADO
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
COLORADO
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Giants Win
68% Win Prob
B
Sim Giants Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Giants (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 COL @ SF 13 - 7
Aug 15, 2026 COL @ SF 1 - 7
Aug 14, 2026 COL @ SF 5 - 2
Jul 12, 2026 COL @ SF 1 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 COL @ SF 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.739 ▲
OPS
.706
180 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +42.0% more
San Francisco: 1.3 vs Colorado: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +20.8% more
San Francisco: 14.3 vs Colorado: 11.9
Hits (L5) +17.7% more
San Francisco: 8.6 vs Colorado: 7.3
Errors (L5) +40.0% more
Colorado: 0.8 vs San Francisco: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.0 1
SF Score 5.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.6 / 7.3 8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 8.1 4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 14.3 / 11.9 8.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.4 / 4.2 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
COL
SF
COL
ML
49% 79-81
60% 97-64
53% 85-75
55% 88-73
ATS
62% 100-60
60% 97-64
52% 83-77
52% 83-78
TTL
55% 82-68-10
60% 93-62-6
46% 68-81-11
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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