ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
55-40 | Road
4
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
50-45 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hurston Waldrep
#64 | Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ryne Stanek
#55 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurston Waldrep | 0-1 | 8.44 | 2.16 | 10.2 | 9 |
| Ryne Stanek | None-None | 4.66 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
0-1
W-L
None-None
8.44
ERA
Ldr 4.66
2.16
WHIP
--
10.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
37%
CARDINALS
63%
BRAVES
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3.8
ATLANTA
St. Louis
5.2
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
St. Louis
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cardinals
Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
ATL @ STL
4 - 3
Jul 11, 2026
ATL @ STL
1 - 4
Jul 10, 2026
ATL @ STL
1 - 2
Jul 2, 2026
STL @ ATL
11 - 5
Jul 1, 2026
STL @ ATL
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
St. Louis
STL
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.757
▲
OPS
.691
1
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16600.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.6%
St. Louis: 23.9%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Walks (L5)
+29.7% more
Atlanta: 2.6
vs
St. Louis: 1.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.9% more
Atlanta: 9.6
vs
St. Louis: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.8
4
STL Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.6 / 6.9
4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 9.6
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
10.5 / 12.0
5.0 / 10.0
Walks
1.9 / 2.6
5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
ATL
STL
ATL
ML
53%
85-74
46%
77-90
52%
84-77
54%
90-78
ATS
56%
89-70
57%
96-71
53%
85-76
52%
87-81
TTL
46%
68-81-10
53%
83-73-11
50%
76-75-10
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
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