Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Twins LAA @ MIN

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

38-59  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Jul 12 • 2:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

48-49  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Denzer Guzman
STARTING PITCHER

Denzer Guzman

#23 | Third Base
@
Taj Bradley
STARTING PITCHER

Taj Bradley

#26 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Denzer Guzman None-None -- -- -- --
Taj Bradley 8-3 3.59 1.22 7.0 6
None-None W-L 8-3
-- ERA 3.59
-- WHIP 1.22
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 7.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 6
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
37%
📊
TWINS
63%
ANGELS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Minnesota)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

36.3%

Twins Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

LAA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIN By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
LOS ANGELES
5.2
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Twins Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Twins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Angels (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 MIN @ LAA 8 - 0
Sep 19, 2026 MIN @ LAA 5 - 6
Sep 18, 2026 MIN @ LAA 3 - 0
Sep 17, 2026 MIN @ LAA 4 - 5
Jul 12, 2026 LAA @ MIN 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.679
OPS
▲ .720
154
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +21.4% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Runs per Game (Season) +12.9% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +12.0% more
Minnesota: 0.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.6
Walks (L5) +11.0% more
Minnesota: 3.5 vs Los Angeles: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.8 2
MIN Score 5.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 10.0 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.6 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 9.5 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.0 / 14.3 10.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.2 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
LAA
MIN
LAA
ML
52% 84-78
59% 96-66
50% 80-81
55% 89-73
ATS
59% 95-67
60% 97-65
59% 95-66
51% 82-80
TTL
51% 78-75-9
53% 83-74-5
53% 80-72-9
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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