CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
51-46 | Road
5
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
52-45 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Joey Cantillo
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Pete Fairbanks
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Cantillo | 7-4 | 3.56 | 1.39 | 5.0 | 9 |
| Pete Fairbanks | None-None | 6.83 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
7-4
W-L
None-None
3.56 Ldr
ERA
6.83
1.39
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
36%
MARLINS
64%
GUARDIANS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
43%
Under 0
57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
CLE By 1-2 runs
14.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
8.9%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.2
CLEVELAND
Miami
4.8
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Marlins
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
A
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
CLE @ MIA
5 - 2
Jul 11, 2026
CLE @ MIA
4 - 1
Jul 10, 2026
CLE @ MIA
3 - 2
Aug 14, 2025
MIA @ CLE
4 - 9
Aug 13, 2025
MIA @ CLE
13 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.696
OPS
▲
.727
162
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+59.0% more
Miami: 0.8
vs
Cleveland: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+55.9% more
Miami: 3.8
vs
Cleveland: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+10.9% more
Miami: 1.2
vs
Cleveland: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+9.7% more
Miami: 14.1
vs
Cleveland: 12.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.2
5
MIA Score
4.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 7.9
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.1
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
4.9 / 10.0
14.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 12.9
12.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.8 / 2.5
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CLE
MIA
CLE
ML
48%
78-84
54%
87-74
55%
88-72
49%
80-82
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
93-68
54%
86-74
59%
95-67
TTL
56%
88-69-5
55%
88-71-2
53%
82-73-5
43%
69-90-2
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