CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
54-42 | Road
8
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
43-52 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Boyd
#16 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd | 4-1 | 4.50 | 1.31 | 6.1 | 3 |
| Andrew Abbott | 5-5 | 4.11 | 1.41 | 4.0 | 3 |
4-1
W-L
5-5
4.50
ERA
Ldr 4.11
1.31 Ldr
WHIP
1.41
6.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
59%
REDS
41%
CUBS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
49%
Under 0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
16.3%
CIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Reds
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
CHC @ CIN
9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026
CHC @ CIN
5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
CHC @ CIN
4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
CIN @ CHC
7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
CIN @ CHC
5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.11
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.229
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.305
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.374
OPS
▲
.699
0
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+21300.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+361.0% more
Cincinnati: 4.1
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+43.5% more
Cincinnati: 2.1
vs
Chicago: 1.5
OPS (Season)
+32.5%
Cincinnati: 69.9%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.0
8
CIN Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.4 / 7.7
9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.5
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 8.6
6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
16.9 / 13.8
13.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.2
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
CHC
CIN
CHC
ML
55%
88-71
58%
93-68
49%
79-81
51%
82-79
ATS
54%
86-73
61%
97-63-1
50%
80-80
47%
75-85-1
TTL
53%
81-73-5
52%
81-74-6
54%
83-72-5
46%
72-83-6
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