BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
46-48 | Road
3
NEW YORK
METSNYM
40-57 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Whitlock
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Devin Williams
#38 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Whitlock | None-None | 2.18 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Devin Williams | None-None | 4.83 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.18 Ldr
ERA
4.83
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
59%
METS
41%
RED SOX
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.3%
NYM By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4.2
BOSTON
New York
3.2
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mets
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
BOS @ NYM
3 - 2
Jul 11, 2026
BOS @ NYM
4 - 0
Jul 10, 2026
BOS @ NYM
6 - 2
May 21, 2025
NYM @ BOS
5 - 1
May 20, 2025
NYM @ BOS
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
New York
NYM
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.395
.409
OPS
▲
.705
2
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+37.3% more
Boston: 1.6
vs
New York: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+29.4% more
Boston: 9.1
vs
New York: 6.4
Total Bases (L5)
+21.3% more
Boston: 15.0
vs
New York: 11.8
Home Runs (Season)
+10100.0% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.2
3
NYM Score
3.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 7.9
6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.6
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.4 / 9.1
14.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 15.0
12.0 / 5.0
Walks
4.5 / 4.5
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
BOS
NYM
BOS
ML
50%
79-80
50%
80-80
48%
76-83
47%
76-87
ATS
58%
93-66
58%
93-67
49%
78-81
48%
79-84
TTL
55%
80-66-13
46%
72-83-5
51%
74-72-13
47%
74-83-6
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …