Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Nationals NYY @ WSH

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

54-42  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, Jul 12 • 1:35 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

48-49  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Will Warren
STARTING PITCHER

Will Warren

#29 | Starting Pitcher
@
Cade Cavalli
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Cavalli

#24 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Will Warren 7-4 4.03 1.37 5.0 2
Cade Cavalli 5-4 3.83 1.38 6.0 5
7-4 W-L 5-4
4.03 ERA Ldr 3.83
1.37 Ldr WHIP 1.38
5.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
68%
📊
NATIONALS
32%
YANKEES --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 59%
Under 0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

69.1%

Nationals Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

18.4%

WSH By 1-2 runs

13.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6.2
NEW YORK
4.2
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Yankees Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim Nationals Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim Nationals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.4
B
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 NYY @ WSH 5 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 NYY @ WSH 4 - 2
Jul 10, 2026 NYY @ WSH 5 - 3
Aug 27, 2025 WSH @ NYY 2 - 11
Aug 26, 2025 WSH @ NYY 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Washington WSH
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
5.07
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
1.041 ▲
OPS
.744
2
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +43.7% more
New York: 9.0 vs Washington: 5.1
OPS (Season) +29.7%
New York: 1.0% vs Washington: 74.4%
Home Runs (L5) +20.2% more
New York: 2.6 vs Washington: 2.1
Errors (L5) +19.0% more
New York: 0.8 vs Washington: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 6.2 5
WSH Score 4.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.7 / 9.9 6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 2.6 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 9.3 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 16.1 / 18.9 14.0 / 12.0
Walks 4.3 / 3.0 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYY
WSH
NYY
ML
57% 92-69
47% 76-85
54% 87-74
52% 85-77
ATS
58% 93-68
59% 95-66
57% 91-70
53% 86-76
TTL
50% 77-78-6
53% 81-73-7
42% 65-90-6
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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