Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Orioles KC @ BAL

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

38-59  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Jul 12 • 1:35 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

46-51  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Seth Lugo
STARTING PITCHER

Seth Lugo

#67 | Starting Pitcher
@
Shane Baz
STARTING PITCHER

Shane Baz

#34 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Seth Lugo 3-6 4.56 1.43 4.0 6
Shane Baz 4-9 4.19 1.37 4.2 9
3-6 W-L 4-9
4.56 ERA Ldr 4.19
1.43 WHIP Ldr 1.37
4.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.2
6 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
36%
📊
ORIOLES
64%
ROYALS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Baltimore)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

35.4%

Orioles Cover

64.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

KC By 1-2 runs

15.0%

KC By 3-4 runs

9.2%

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BAL By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5.5
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Orioles Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Orioles Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 KC @ BAL 2 - 8
Jul 11, 2026 KC @ BAL 1 - 6
Jul 10, 2026 KC @ BAL 3 - 5
Apr 22, 2026 BAL @ KC 8 - 6
Apr 21, 2026 BAL @ KC 5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.718 ▲
OPS
.711
170
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +119.1% more
Baltimore: 2.4 vs Kansas City: 1.1
Errors (L5) +34.0% more
Baltimore: 0.8 vs Kansas City: 0.4
Walks (L5) +27.2% more
Baltimore: 3.2 vs Kansas City: 2.5
Total Bases (L5) +21.8% more
Baltimore: 15.3 vs Kansas City: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.0 2
BAL Score 5.5 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.2 / 7.3 12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 2.4 / 1.1 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 8.1 10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 12.6 19.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.2 / 2.5 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
KC
BAL
KC
ML
53% 83-73
55% 89-72
57% 90-69
56% 90-70
ATS
61% 95-60-1
57% 91-70
57% 90-68-1
58% 93-67
TTL
54% 81-70-5
58% 90-64-7
51% 78-75-6
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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