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MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

59-37  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, Jul 12 • 12:15 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

50-47  |  Home

14
Probable Pitchers
Bryse Wilson
STARTING PITCHER

Bryse Wilson

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
Paul Skenes
STARTING PITCHER

Paul Skenes

#30 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryse Wilson None-None 4.61 -- 3.0 4
Paul Skenes 7-8 3.57 1.04 5.1 7
None-None W-L 7-8
4.61 ERA Ldr 3.57
-- WHIP 1.04
3.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.1
4 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
32%
📊
PIRATES
68%
BREWERS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 43%
Under 0 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Pittsburgh)
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

30.9%

Pirates Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

MIL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

MIL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

PIT By 1-2 runs

19.6%

PIT By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
2.5
MILWAUKEE
4.5
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
4
MILWAUKEE
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim Pirates Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pirates (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Brewers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 MIL @ PIT 4 - 7
Sep 16, 2026 MIL @ PIT 5 - 4
Sep 15, 2026 MIL @ PIT 5 - 1
Aug 6, 2026 PIT @ MIL 2 - 5
Aug 5, 2026 PIT @ MIL 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.330
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.743 ▲
OPS
.734
154
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +85.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.6 vs Milwaukee: 0.7
Home Runs (Season) +20.8% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0 vs Milwaukee: 154.0
Total Bases (L5) +13.9% more
Pittsburgh: 14.6 vs Milwaukee: 12.8
Errors (L5) +28.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.3 vs Pittsburgh: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 2.5 5
PIT Score 4.5 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.5 / 8.6 15.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.7 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 8.4 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.6 / 12.8 27.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.3 / 4.3 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
MIL
PIT
MIL
ML
52% 82-77
62% 101-61
52% 85-78
52% 84-78
ATS
54% 86-73
58% 94-68
50% 81-82
48% 78-84
TTL
47% 72-81-6
40% 62-92-8
50% 79-78-6
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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