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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

48-47  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Jul 11 • 9:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

61-35  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Brandon Pfaadt
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Pfaadt

#32 | Starting Pitcher
@
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
STARTING PITCHER

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brandon Pfaadt 2-1 4.70 1.34 5.1 2
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 9-5 2.85 0.88 6.0 6
2-1 W-L 9-5
4.70 ERA Ldr 2.85
1.34 WHIP Ldr 0.88
5.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
37%
📊
DODGERS
63%
DIAMONDBACKS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Los Angeles)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

36.3%

Dodgers Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

ARI By 1-2 runs

15.3%

ARI By 3-4 runs

9.5%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
ARIZONA
5.2
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
ARIZONA
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Dodgers Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Dodgers Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+2.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Dodgers (+2.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 LAD @ ARI 2 - 4
Aug 8, 2026 LAD @ ARI 2 - 1
Aug 7, 2026 LAD @ ARI 3 - 4
Jul 12, 2026 ARI @ LAD 5 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 ARI @ LAD 9 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.720
OPS
▲ .762
166
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +120.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.5 vs Arizona: 0.3
Home Runs (Season) +22.9% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Arizona: 166.0
Home Runs (L5) +10.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.1 vs Arizona: 1.0
Runs per Game (Season) +8.3% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Arizona: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 3.8 9
LAD Score 5.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.5 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 8.4 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.0 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 9.1 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 12.4 7.0 / 20.0
Walks 2.3 / 3.0 0.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
ARI
LAD
ARI
ML
56% 92-73
54% 87-74
48% 79-87
54% 86-74
ATS
59% 98-67
57% 91-70
43% 72-94
56% 89-71
TTL
48% 77-82-6
52% 80-73-8
44% 70-90-6
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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