TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
45-50 | Road
7
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
47-48 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trey Yesavage
#39 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Walker Buehler
#10 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Yesavage | 4-4 | 3.72 | 1.08 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Walker Buehler | 5-5 | 5.36 | 1.39 | 2.0 | 1 |
4-4
W-L
5-5
3.72 Ldr
ERA
5.36
1.08 Ldr
WHIP
1.39
1.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
37%
PADRES
63%
BLUE JAYS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
TOR By 1-2 runs
14.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
8.9%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.2
TORONTO
San Diego
4.8
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Padres
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
A
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
TOR @ SD
4 - 5
Jul 11, 2026
TOR @ SD
7 - 8
Jul 10, 2026
TOR @ SD
5 - 3
May 22, 2025
SD @ TOR
6 - 7
May 21, 2025
SD @ TOR
0 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.692
OPS
▲
.925
152
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+50.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+30.3% more
San Diego: 7.5
vs
Toronto: 5.7
OPS (Season)
+23.3%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+18.2%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Toronto: 38.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.2
7
SD Score
4.8
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 8.6
8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.3
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 5.7
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.2 / 13.2
11.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.6
11.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
TOR
SD
TOR
ML
51%
85-83
46%
74-87
51%
85-82
50%
80-80
ATS
54%
91-77
56%
90-71
55%
92-75
49%
79-81
TTL
51%
82-80-6
51%
80-76-5
54%
86-74-6
45%
70-85-5
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