ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
54-40 | Road
1
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
50-44 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Reynaldo Lopez
#40 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Liberatore
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reynaldo Lopez | 4-1 | 3.50 | 1.27 | 5.0 | 3 |
| Matthew Liberatore | 4-6 | 5.00 | 1.53 | 6.0 | 6 |
4-1
W-L
4-6
3.50 Ldr
ERA
5.00
1.27 Ldr
WHIP
1.53
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
64%
CARDINALS
36%
BRAVES
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
STL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
5.2
ATLANTA
St. Louis
3.8
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Cardinals
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
ATL @ STL
4 - 3
Jul 11, 2026
ATL @ STL
1 - 4
Jul 10, 2026
ATL @ STL
1 - 2
Jul 2, 2026
STL @ ATL
11 - 5
Jul 1, 2026
STL @ ATL
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
St. Louis
STL
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.757
▲
OPS
.691
1
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+23.1% more
Atlanta: 3.0
vs
St. Louis: 2.3
Hits (L5)
+20.6% more
Atlanta: 7.4
vs
St. Louis: 5.9
Total Bases (L5)
+17.1% more
Atlanta: 13.0
vs
St. Louis: 10.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+11.2% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
St. Louis: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
5.2
1
STL Score
3.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.9 / 7.4
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 8.8
6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 13.0
10.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.3 / 3.0
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
ATL
STL
ATL
ML
53%
85-74
46%
77-90
52%
84-77
54%
90-78
ATS
56%
89-70
57%
96-71
53%
85-76
52%
87-81
TTL
46%
68-81-10
53%
83-73-11
50%
76-75-10
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
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