Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Reds CHC @ CIN

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

53-42  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Jul 11 • 7:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

43-51  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Javier Assad
STARTING PITCHER

Javier Assad

#72 | Relief Pitcher
@
Nick Lodolo
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Lodolo

#40 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Javier Assad 6-1 4.11 1.10 5.0 4
Nick Lodolo 3-2 4.60 1.46 5.0 4
6-1 W-L 3-2
4.11 Ldr ERA 4.60
1.10 Ldr WHIP 1.46
5.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 5.0
4 K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
58%
📊
REDS
42%
CUBS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 46%
Under 0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

40.1%

Reds Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

CIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
CHICAGO
4.2
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Reds Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.4
C
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 CHC @ CIN 9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026 CHC @ CIN 5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 CHC @ CIN 4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026 CIN @ CHC 7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 CIN @ CHC 5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Cincinnati CIN
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.11
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .229
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .305
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .394
.374
OPS
▲ .699
0
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +21300.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +361.0% more
Cincinnati: 4.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5) +38.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.7 vs Chicago: 1.2
OPS (Season) +32.5%
Cincinnati: 69.9% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.2 5
CIN Score 4.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 7.1 11.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.2 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.6 / 9.3 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 12.2 20.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.3 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
CHC
CIN
CHC
ML
55% 88-71
58% 93-68
49% 79-81
51% 82-79
ATS
54% 86-73
61% 97-63-1
50% 80-80
47% 75-85-1
TTL
53% 81-73-5
52% 81-74-6
54% 83-72-5
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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