HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
47-50 | Road
9
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
48-47 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Peter Lambert
#38 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kumar Rocker
#80 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Lambert | 7-5 | 3.14 | 1.15 | 6.0 | 7 |
| Kumar Rocker | 2-7 | 4.40 | 1.34 | 5.2 | 6 |
7-5
W-L
2-7
3.14 Ldr
ERA
4.40
1.15 Ldr
WHIP
1.34
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.2
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
6
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
37%
RANGERS
63%
ASTROS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
46%
Under 0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
HOU By 1-2 runs
15.0%
HOU By 3-4 runs
9.2%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TEX By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3.5
HOUSTON
Texas
5
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rangers
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Astros (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
TEX @ HOU
3 - 7
Aug 1, 2026
TEX @ HOU
4 - 5
Jul 31, 2026
TEX @ HOU
2 - 11
Jul 12, 2026
HOU @ TEX
5 - 6
Jul 11, 2026
HOU @ TEX
9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Texas
TEX
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.15
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.582
OPS
▲
.713
4
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4475.0% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+56.5% more
Texas: 2.3
vs
Houston: 1.5
Walks (L5)
+49.4% more
Texas: 3.6
vs
Houston: 2.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+41.3% more
Texas: 9.2
vs
Houston: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.5
9
TEX Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 7.9
7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
2.3 / 1.5
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 6.5
12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
16.5 / 13.5
13.0 / 23.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.4
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
HOU
TEX
HOU
ML
53%
86-76
50%
81-82
57%
91-70
47%
77-87
ATS
57%
92-70
56%
91-72
61%
98-63
55%
90-74
TTL
53%
78-70-14
45%
70-84-9
55%
81-66-14
45%
69-86-9
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